Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS64 KBMX 081653
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1153 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

Weak 500 mb ridging, marked by anticyclonically-curved flow, will
extended westward across Alabama today, while a trough axis spans
the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm activity this afternoon
is expected to be relatively isolated in nature due to the
lingering weak ridging. However, the approaching upper-level
trough and weak height falls may support slightly greater coverage
across our northwestern counties.

As 500 mb height falls continue on Wednesday, rain chances should
notably increase on Wednesday, particularly north of I-20, where
numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. A
deficit in PWAT values south of I-20, associated with a decaying
weak 500 mb ridge, should result in somewhat lower coverage of
afternoon convection.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

Gradual weak height falls will continue into Thursday as a trough
axis moves into our forecast area. This will support widespread
afternoon thunderstorms, and a similar scenario is expected for
Friday. There are some signs of very weak 500 mb ridging making a
comeback for Saturday through Monday, but rain chances could
remain elevated as deep moisture lingers across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expanding across the
region, with all terminals carrying PROB30s for TSRA through the
afternoon. Terminals are expected to remain VFR, with some reduced
VIS possible tonight if rain were to fall. However, confidence was
not high enough at this time to reduce categories past 09/00z.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The moist airmass will remain in place for most of the next week,
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each day. MinRH
values likely won`t drop below 60%, with Mixing Heights remaining
variable due to the cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  71  92  70 /  40  20  70  40
Anniston    92  72  90  71 /  30  20  60  40
Birmingham  92  73  91  72 /  40  20  60  40
Tuscaloosa  92  74  91  73 /  40  20  60  30
Calera      92  73  90  72 /  40  20  60  30
Auburn      91  73  90  72 /  30  20  50  30
Montgomery  93  74  93  73 /  30  20  50  30
Troy        92  72  92  72 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION.../44/